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*** NOTE: Informasia speakers are needed for June 15, August 17, September 21, and November 16, 2026. Please contact Patricia Yarrow at: yarrowp@gmail.com
NEXT INFORMASIA LECTURE
Informasia #4, April 20, 2026
Peter Matanle
Towards an Agenda for Researching Global Population Decline: Japan as the Depopulation Vanguard Country for Northeast Asia
Vimeo video: posted April 21, 2026
Audio: posted April 21, 2026
Who
Dr Peter Matanle is Visiting Researcher at the Asian Demographic ResearchInstitute, Shanghai University, China. He received his BA from the University of Cambridge, and PhD from the University of Sheffield, UK. Until July this year he was Senior Lecturer at the School of East Asian Studies, University of Sheffield. His most recent co-authored publication in Nature Sustainability (Uchida, Matanle, Yang, Fujita & Hiraiwa,2025; DOI: 10.1038/s41893-025-01578-w) researches depopulation and biodiversity
in Japan’s rural agricultural regions. He has authored many articles, chapters, books, and website contributions on this and other topics related to the human geography of East Asia.Brief cv: https://www.asiaresearchnews.com/content/peter-matanle
Abstract
For the first time in human history stable, wealthy, and healthy societies across the world are having fewer children than they need to reproduce themselves. By 2050 the UN estimates that more than 80 countries will be in continuous population decline. Most of these are developed countries in Europe and Asia, but other world regions are also affected. As yet, little is known about the potential impacts this global transformation may have on society, the economy, and the natural environment.
In Asia, Japan was the first to encounter population decline, beginning in 2008. Other Asian countries, including China and South Korea, are following suit. With similar geographies and developmental pathways, it is possible to think of Japan as the forerunner and exemplar for understanding the outcomes of depopulation in Northeast Asia – what I term a ‘Depopulation Vanguard Country’ (DVC). Can we do similarly for other world regions and identify countries whose experiences of depopulation will be instructive for their neighbours as they tackle the grand challenges of our age?
Many people assume that depopulation will have negative socio-economic but positive environmental impacts. What happens when the labour force contracts but there are no longer enough migrants to fill the gaps? Does nature really rebound when there are fewer people around to work the land? Are these assumptions true? Have these outcomes happened in Japan?
In this talk I will propose a global theory for Depopulation Vanguard Countries (DVCs), identify DVCs for each world region, and focus on Japan as a case study. I will conclude by suggesting a research agenda for identifying current and future risks and opportunities for countries as they begin to depopulate. By doing so I hope to answer some of these questions ... or at least stimulate a fruitful discussion about our shared future in a rapidly changing world.
Our Speaker
Dr Peter Matanle, Visiting Researcher, Asian Demographic ResearchInstitute, Shanghai University, China.
Recent Publications
12 June 2025. "Biodiversity change under human depopulation in Japan". University of Sheffield. Nature Sustainability. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-025-01578-w
Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus Archives (three articles, 2017-2020). https://apjjf.org/authors/view/14698
, 28 pages. https://apjjf.org/wp-content/https://apjjf.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/5018-1.pdf
16 July 2025. Scroll.in, July 2025. https://scroll.in/article/1084320/is-population-decline-good-for-nature-japan-shows-that-may-not-be-the-case
E-mail
peter.matanle@cantab.net
Recommended by Joel Littler.
